Public Opinion Survey
8 June 2026
A YouGov survey of Lebanese adults across October 2025 and January 2026 shows broad support for Aoun’s effort to consolidate arms under state authority, a majority-negative view of Hezbollah’s military presence, and divided sentiment on the U.S. role and conditional normalization with Israel. Lebanese views on the likelihood of future peace lean modestly toward likely.
63% of Lebanese support President Joseph Aoun’s effort to strengthen the Lebanese Army and place all armed forces under government authority in January 2026, with 52% describing Hezbollah’s military presence as a negative for national security, according to a Council for a Secure America survey conducted by YouGov.
The findings come fourteen months after the September 2024 elimination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and the subsequent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in southern Lebanon, a period in which Hezbollah’s command structure was decapitated and the post-war Lebanese political order began to consolidate around state institutions.
63% of Lebanese support disarming Hezbollah and placing all armed forces under state authority in January 2026.
Down from 65% in October. Opposition rose from 6% in October to 9% in January.
52% of Lebanese describe Hezbollah’s military presence as negative for national security in both fieldings.
Positive views held at 10% across both surveys.
Aoun job approval rose to 57% positive in January, from 52% in October.
Negative views held at 9% in both fieldings.
The U.S. role read as 27% positive against 31% negative in January.
Negative views fell seven points from 38% in October, the largest movement of any question.
A plurality of Lebanese view future peace with Israel as likely.
40% likely against 27% unlikely in January, statistically unchanged from October. Conditional normalization with Israel sits at 27% support against 31% opposed.
The first fielding, in October 2025, was conducted thirteen months after the September 2024 elimination of Hassan Nasrallah and the IDF pivot to offensive operations in southern Lebanon. The second fielding followed three months later, in January 2026.
The intervening period saw Joseph Aoun take office as President of Lebanon and begin assembling a cabinet around the reconstitution of state authority. The post-Nasrallah Hezbollah leadership operated under sustained military pressure along the southern frontier following the September 2024 digital-device (pager and walkie-talkie) operation that preceded Hezbollah’s decapitation and commando raids into southern Lebanon. The June 2025 Israel-Iran 12-Day War followed.
| Question | Oct 2025 | Jan 2026 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| How would you rate the performance of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon? (Total Good) | 52% | 57% | +5 |
| How would you feel about efforts by Aoun to strengthen the Lebanese Army and negotiate the disarmament of Hezbollah so that all armed forces in Lebanon operate under the Government’s authority? (Total Support) | 65% | 63% | −2 |
| Overall, how would you describe the impact of Hezbollah’s military presence on Lebanon’s security? (Total Negative) | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| How would you describe the role of the United States in Lebanon’s political and economic affairs? (Total Positive) | 29% | 27% | −2 |
| How would you describe the role of the United States in Lebanon’s political and economic affairs? (Total Negative) | 38% | 31% | −7 |
| How likely to unlikely do you think it is that there will be peace between Israel and Lebanon in the future? (Total Likely) | 39% | 40% | +1 |
| If there was a long-term resolution to the issue of Palestine, how would you view the normalization of diplomatic or economic relations between Lebanon and Israel? (Total Support) | 30% | 27% | −3 |
How would you rate the performance of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon?
57% of Lebanese rate Aoun’s performance positively in January 2026, up from 52% in October. 9% describe his performance as poor in both fieldings. The five-point rise is at the edge of the survey margin of error.
How would you feel about efforts by Aoun to strengthen the Lebanese Army and negotiate the disarmament of Hezbollah so that all armed forces in Lebanon operate under the Government’s authority?
63% of Lebanese support Aoun’s effort to consolidate arms under state authority in January 2026, down from 65% in October. Opposition rose from 6% to 9% over the same period. A majority of respondents continues to back the effort. Compare with Syrian public opinion: 69% of Syrians describe Hezbollah involvement in Syria as negative.
Overall, how would you describe the impact of Hezbollah’s military presence on Lebanon’s security?
52% of Lebanese describe Hezbollah’s military presence as negative for national security in both October 2025 and January 2026. Positive views held at 10% in both fieldings. The reading is statistically unchanged across the two fieldings.
How would you describe the role of the United States in Lebanon’s political and economic affairs?
27% of Lebanese describe the U.S. role as positive in January 2026, statistically unchanged from 29% in October. Negative views fell from 38% in October to 31% in January, the largest movement of any question in the two-fielding compare. The net U.S. read shifted from −9 in October to −4 in January.
How likely to unlikely do you think it is that there will be peace between Israel and Lebanon in the future?
40% of Lebanese view future peace between Israel and Lebanon as likely in January 2026, statistically unchanged from 39% in October. 27% view it as unlikely. The likely-vs-unlikely spread sits at 13 points in both fieldings.
If there was a long-term resolution to the issue of Palestine, how would you view the normalization of diplomatic or economic relations between Lebanon and Israel?
27% of Lebanese support normalization conditional on a long-term Palestinian resolution in January 2026, against 31% opposed. Support fell from 30% in October; opposition rose from 28%. The 36-point gap between disarmament support (63%) and conditional normalization (27%) is the central political fact of the two-fielding compare.
Lebanese public opinion gives Aoun’s disarmament effort broad backing while withholding majority endorsement of conditional normalization with Israel. A 63% majority supports placing all armed forces under state authority in January. A 52% majority describes Hezbollah’s military presence as a negative for national security. The U.S. role moved from a −9 net read in October to −4 in January, driven by a seven-point drop in negative views.
The gap between disarmament support (63%) and conditional normalization (27%) is consistent with CSA’s Peace Through Prosperity framework: a state monopoly on force is the precondition for any subsequent political opening. For U.S. policy, the implication is that sustained backing of the Lebanese Armed Forces, continued pressure on the disarmament timeline, and patience on normalization are aligned with the trajectory of Lebanese public opinion.
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CSA fielded the Lebanon Public Opinion Survey through YouGov in two rounds: 253 Lebanese adults in October 2025 (October 14 to 20) and 252 again in January 2026 (January 8 to 14). Both samples were drawn from YouGov’s online panel and weighted by age and gender to match World Bank demographic data for Lebanon. Interviews were conducted in Arabic.
The margin of sampling error for each round is approximately 5.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
The Council for a Secure America (CSA) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(C)(3) educational organization. CSA educates on the link between U.S. energy security, national security, and diplomacy through original research, public-opinion polling, rapid response primers, and off-the-record briefings for policymakers, industry leaders, and civic institutions. CSA does not lobby or advocate for legislative or executive action.
